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mg电子游戏注册送55:朝鲜问题是双刃剑,美国国家安全顾问对中国朝鲜政策的解读(观点比较新颖)

时间:2018/1/25 3:45:51  作者:  来源:  浏览:0  评论:0
内容摘要:Keeping the Kim family dynasty in power, economically afloat, and technologically capable has significantly advanced China’s strategic objec...



Keeping the Kim family dynasty in power, economically afloat, and technologically capable has significantly advanced China’s strategic objectives toward the West.
前言:保持金氏家族的权力,经济上的正常运转,以及技术上的能力,极大地促进了中国西进(一带一路)的战略目标。
Joseph A. Bosco  January 17, 2018
Joseph Bosco is a national-security consultant. He served as the China country director in the Office of the Secretary of Defense. He retired in 2010.Joseph Bosco是国家安全顾问。曾担任国防部长办公室中国事务主任,2010年退休。mg电子游戏注册送55:朝鲜问题是双刃剑,美国国家安全顾问对中国朝鲜政策的解读(观点比较新颖)The citizens and government of Hawaii should send a big mock congratulatory lei to Chinese leader Xi Jinping. The sheer terror they experienced for the better part of an hour last Saturday morning ultimately came courtesy of China’s longstanding policy of enabling and protecting North Korea’s nuclear and ballistic missile programs.Yes, the immediate cause of the panic was the local government’s erroneous flash warning that the Pacific paradise island was about to be hit by a nuclear missile. Given North Korea’s recent nuclear and missile tests and blatant threats against America, the alert seemed credible.夏威夷的公民和政府应该向中国送上一个大大的祝贺。上周六早上,他们在一个小时的时间里所经历的真实的恐怖场景,本质上是出于中国长期以来允许和保护朝鲜的核武器和弹道导弹项目的政策。
是的,引起恐慌的直接原因是当地政府发布的太平洋天堂岛即将被一枚核导弹击中的错误警报。但鉴于朝鲜最近的核导弹试验和对美国的公然威胁,这一警告似乎是可信的。
Why, then, sarcastically congratulate China for the stark fear the event engendered in 1.5 million Hawaiians and tourists and other Americans who remembered Pearl Harbor?What North Korea has sought to gain with nuclear weapons has long been clear: domestic legitimacy and international prestige; awesome military power available for both offensive and defensive purposes; formidable leverage in negotiations over security, economic, and diplomatic matters; and, most importantly, separation of South Korea from its American ally.那么,为什么我们要因为这个让150万夏威夷人、游客和其他想起珍珠港事件的美国人强烈恐惧的事情而讽刺的祝贺中国呢?
长期以来,朝鲜一直试图通过核武器获得的好处是:国内合法性和国际威望;令人敬畏的军事力量可用于进攻和防御目的;在安全、经济和外交事务方面的谈判具有强大的影响力;最重要的是,把韩国从美国的盟友中分离出来。
It has been insufficiently noticed that Beijing shares those same goals for North Korea and that they synergistically serve China’s own strategic aims.For far too long, China has succeeded in portraying itself as merely a passive neighbor and reluctant supplier of food, fuel, and diplomatic cover for its rambunctious junior partner, and even as another victim of Pyongyang’s erratic behavior. All Beijing wants, it argues, is stability on a “denuclearized” Korean Peninsula, and a defensive “buffer” against potential aggression from South Korea, Japan and the United States.人们没有充分注意到,北京与朝鲜有着同样的目标,而且它们协同服务于中国自身的战略目标。长期以来,中国已经成功地把自己描绘成一个被动的邻居,不情愿地为其粗暴的初级伙伴提供食物、燃料和外交掩护,甚至是平壤古怪行为的另一个受害者。所有评论都以为中国政府希望朝鲜半岛实现“无核化”基础上的稳定,并作为对韩国、日本和美国的潜在侵略地防御性的“缓冲”。
The reality is quite different: keeping the Kim family dynasty in power, economically afloat, and technologically capable of progressing with its nuclear and missile programs has significantly advanced China’s strategic objectives toward the West.It has distracted and diverted two generations of U.S. diplomats and policymakers from other tasks, including keeping an eye on China’s own aggressive regional and global agenda.现实情况大不相同:保持金氏家族的权力,经济上的正常运转,以及其核和导弹项目的技术能力已经大大提升了中国西进的战略目标。它分散和转移了两代美国外交官和决策者对中国积极的地区和全球议程的密切关注。
It has afforded Beijing enormous undeserved prestige as a responsible, restraining influence over North Korea’s reckless conduct. China’s leaders have skillfully leveraged that credibility to stay the West’s hand on myriad Chinese violations of international norms in trade and currency, freedom of navigation and overflight, proliferation and human rights.North Korea has proved to be a wonderful two-edged sword for China to wield against the United States and its allies, with both edges cutting into Western interests—a true win-win for Pyongyang and Beijing. Historians may well marvel at how long it has taken for the West to catch on to, and call out, China’ insidious game.它使北京获得了作为一个负责任的,降低朝鲜的轻率行为影响的巨大的不应有的声誉。中国领导人巧妙地利用了这一信誉,让西方国家对中国在贸易和货币、航行和飞越自由、核扩散和人权等方面违反国际准则的行为的不干涉。事实证明,朝鲜是中国对美国及其盟友使用的一把绝妙的双刃剑,这双刃都是对西方利益的切割,对平壤和北京来说是真正的双赢。历史学家很可能会惊叹,西方国家花了这么长时间才明白并呼吁中国“阴险的游戏”。
U.S. intelligence knew, for example, that even as Washington was yielding to Beijing’s demands for a nuclear-free Korean Peninsula by withdrawing U.S. tactical nuclear weapons from South Korea in the early 1990s, Chinese nuclear plans and technology were being funneled to North Korea (as well as to Libya and Iran) through Pakistan’s A. Q. Khan network.The pattern continued over the next two decades as Beijing always had Pyongyang’s back at the UN Security Council, ensuring that sanctions never bit too deeply, and in Six Party Talks where it staved off Western demands for serious denuclearization.美国情报机关已经知道,例如,尽管华盛顿在1990年代初是屈服于北京的朝鲜半岛无核化的要求从韩国撤出美国战术核武器,中国通过巴基斯坦的A. Q. Khan网络向朝鲜(以及利比亚和伊朗)泄露核计划和技术。在接下来的20年里,这种模式继续存在,因为北京一直让平壤回到联合国安理会(UN Security Council),以确保制裁不会太过深入,而且在六方会谈中,它避免了西方要求朝鲜实现绝对无核化的要求。
Donald Trump, as candidate, president-elect, and now as president has seen through this game and has repeatedly called out China for failing to use its unparalleled ability to stop and reverse North Korea’s nuclear program.After putting Beijing on notice that he is on to its strategy, he then offered the softer approach, hosting Xi at Mar a Lago and lavishing praise on the Chinese leader as a strong partner in international affairs, along with chocolate cake and a few dozen well-targeted missiles at Syria (to enforce President Obama’s red line on chemical weapons use).唐纳德•特朗普(Donald Trump)作为总统候选人、当选总统,现在总统通过这场游戏中已经看到,并多次声称中国没有利用其无与伦比的能力阻止和扭转朝鲜的核计划。在让北京方面注意到他的策略之后,他又提出了更温和的做法,在海湖庄园(Mar a Lago)招待中国主席,并对中国领导人在国际事务中作为一个强有力的合作伙伴大加赞赏,同巧克力蛋糕一道的还有数十枚瞄准叙利亚的精准导弹(执行奥巴马总统关于化学武器使用的红线)。
In addition, after some initial positive steps on other China-centric flash points—raising Taiwan’s international status, enforcing freedom of navigation in the South China Sea, correcting trade imbalances—the president stepped back to give Beijing some time and space to work the North Korea problem.While China has moved further to press Pyongyang than it has during any other U.S. administration, it still stops short of the Draconian economic measures needed to change Kim’s calculus of advantages and disadvantages in pursuing nukes.此外,在对一些以中国为中心的热点问题——提升台湾的国际地位,确保南海的航行自由,纠正贸易的不平衡采取了初步的积极措施之后,——总统后退了一步,给了北京一些时间和空间去解决朝鲜问题。尽管中国已经进一步向平壤施加了比历任美国政府时期都要大的压力,但它仍然拒绝采取必要的严厉的经济措施来改变金正恩在寻求核武器方面利与弊的计算。
Now that presidential flattery and cajolery have failed to convince China of the urgency of the situation, Washington must change Beijing’s own cost-risk-benefit analysis, not only by seriously punishing complicit Chinese entities, but also by moving ahead more assertively on the other American imperatives—such as Taiwan and the South China Sea. Much remains to be done in both those areas.既然总统奉承和甜言蜜语未能说服中国情况的紧迫性,华盛顿必须改变北京的成本-风险-收益分析,不仅通过严厉惩罚同谋的中国实体,也需要在其他对美国必要的事情上采取更积极的态度,如台湾和南中国海。在这两个领域仍有许多工作可以做。The president must reject outright Beijing’s false pleading that it cannot get any tougher for fear of risking the possibility of regime change in Pyongyang. U.S. policymakers have repeatedly assured the two Communist governments that we can live and let live with that odious regime—but not when it is armed with nuclear-tipped missiles presenting an existential threat to Honolulu and other American cities.总统必须断然拒绝北京方面因为担心朝鲜政权更迭的可能风险,而不能采取强硬措施的虚假请求。美国的政策制定者一再保证两个共产政府和我们可以共存,但当它装备有核弹头的导弹,并表现出对檀香山和其他美国城市构成了生死存亡的威胁时,我们不可以与可恶的政权共存。As was said of German regimes before the two world wars, Pyongyang and Beijing demand absolute security at the cost of everyone else’s absolute insecurity. This is not a president who can accept that fatally flawed deal.正如在两次世界大战前的德国政权所说的那样,平壤和北京要求绝对安全,代价是每个人的绝对不安全。这个致命的有缺陷的交易是一个总统不能接受的。



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